The once unthinkable has happened: Syria’s power is shifting dramatically as Bashar al-Assad relocates, leaving behind a nation on edge.
At a Glance
- The Syrian war is the 21st century’s most protracted and second-deadliest conflict.
- The Assad regime collapses, with rebel groups seizing control of key urban areas.
- Russia and Iran’s preoccupations contribute to the regime’s vulnerability.
- Assad’s relocation creates a power vacuum amidst threats of chemical weapon misuse.
Assad’s Waning Grip Leads to Chaos
President Bashar al-Assad’s abrupt relocation signals the end of a five-decade-long stronghold maintained by his family, turning Syria’s political sphere into a chaotic landscape. The conquering of Aleppo and Homs by rebel factions, notably Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, designated as a terrorist group by the U.S., marks a significant territorial change. The current turmoil reminds many of past regime collapses in the region, such as those in Iraq and Libya, which unleashed waves of instability.
The ripple effects of Assad’s regime crumbling are far-reaching, not just within Syria but internationally. Over 800 people have died in recent violences, and millions displaced, creating significant humanitarian and security challenges for neighboring countries like Turkey. The geopolitical interests of players like Russia, which initially pivoted the power with its intervention alongside Iran in 2015, are now severely tested.
The Role of External Influence
Russia and Iran, once staunch supporters of Assad, are engrossed in their respective conflicts, weakening support for the Syrian regime. This fragility allowed rebel groups to reawaken the conflict, seizing pivotal territories. For more than thirteen years, the Syrian civil war has impacted regional geopolitics, underscoring issues of authoritarian repression and sectarian divides. Governments worldwide must act to prevent further escalations and secure chemical weapons from falling into the wrong hands.
“Much as I oppose the Assad regime, its atrocities and abuses, what is happening in Aleppo right now is terrifying. Many will die” – Chris Doyle
While Russian and Iranian contributions protected Assad previously, the shifting alliances due to their distractions leave Syria exposed. The dynamics in Aleppo spotlight the importance of anticipating unintended consequences when power shifts abruptly, showing rebels currently at an advantage. In this scenario, power struggles among various factions could introduce another phase of regional instability.
The Future of Syria and International Response
The collapse of Assad’s authority is “historic”, closing a brutal chapter but perhaps seeding a new one fraught with challenges. As countries grapple with securing Syria’s chemical stocks, coalition-building becomes essential to prevent these weapons from empowering extremist factions. In Turkey, internal pressures related to its refugee burdens coincide with a rechristened coalition backed by the Syrian National Army. Statements from figures like Trump echo past sentiments of disengagement, yet the global community can’t ignore Syria’s present chaos.
“Any possible chemical weapons inventory or related materials must be secured.” – Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan
The international community, facing a “geopolitical recession” as described by experts like Ian Bremmer, is in overdrive finding a strategy that encourages stability amidst chaos ensuing from Assad’s exit. While rebel factions bask in newfound power, their intentions for an inclusive administration must materialize as practical solutions, steering clear from retaliatory inclinations that could kindle another destructive phase of conflict.
